Using the IRR is common. Unfortunately, its
misuse is also common. Although net present value is a more stable metric,
the use of IRR is common, despite its shortcomings. Investors should know
all the drawbacks of the IRR and when using it is inappropriate. The Seven
Deadly Sins of the IRR are: |
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1. It assumes all intertemporal
cash flows are reinvested at its own rate, usually higher than is possible.
2. There are situations in which its iterative calculation process fails
to produce a solution.
3. When the algebraic sign of the cash flow changes in the middle of the
series it is possible to obtain two “right” answers.
4. When mutually exclusive projects are considered it can recommend the
wrong investment.
5. It fails to consider scale, which can lead the investor to invest inefficiently.
6. It ignores the difference between risk pooling and risk sharing.
7. Simulation of the IRR produces a bias that increases with the variance
in the cash flows. Thus, simulation is least accurate when needed the
most.
The graphic above illustrates item #7 where the red dotted line (“line”)
represents the linear simulated IRR and the green line represents the
IRR function. The curved line at the bottom tracks the difference, an
unavoidable bias, showing its apex at Cash Flow = 150. |
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