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Research Highlights
2012 San Diego Commercial Real Estate Forecast
International Comparison of Mortgage Product Offerings
Research Institute for Housing America
Dr. Michael Lea, Director, Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate
September 29, 2010
U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs
- Dr. Michael Lea Testifies Before a Senate Subcommittee
Dr. Michael Lea
Michael Lea presented a paper on the international comparison of mortgage markets at the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Assn. annual meeting in Denver in January 2011.
Michael was a panelist in the Fourth Annual Real Estate Research Symposium at the University of California Irvine Center for Real Estate in February 2011. He discussed the proposals for restructuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Michael will give a presentation on The Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California luncheon meeting at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona on March 17, 2011.
Michael’s paper “International Comparison of Mortgage Product Offerings”, was published as a Research Institute for Housing America monograph, September 2010. His paper “Alternative Forms of Mortgage Finance: What Can We Learn From Other Countries”, was published in Eric Belsky and Nicolas Retsinas, Ed., Moving Forward: The Future of Consumer Credit and Mortgage Finance, Brookings Institution 2011
Michael is currently conducting research on the future of the mortgage market and the role of the long term fixed rate mortgage.
Dr. Xudong An
Real estate faculty Prof. Xudong An’s research paper "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," coauthored with Yongheng Deng, Eric Rosenblatt and Vincent Yao is accepted for publication at the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, a leading academic journal in real estate. The research finds that econometric default risk models based on historical data can be unstable over time. Due to temporal shifts in the parameters, default prediction of the 2006 vintage subprime loans based on hazard and Logit models estimated with 2003 vintage loan data can generate over 40 percent fewer defaults than the actual number, assuming perfect forecast of house price change. It also finds that the combined impact of parameter instability and bad forecast of HPI growth enlarges the under-prediction of default rate but the marginal impact of parameter instability is larger than that of bad HPI forecast. The findings have important implications regarding model limitations and risk, model improvements, economic capital, and regulatory reform.
Dr. An receives another research grant from the SDSU University Grant Program through an open competition. His research topic is “Excess Premium, Soft Information, and Subprime Mortgage Default.” This is the seventh research grant he has received since he joins SDSU in 2007.
Dr. An was invited to present his research at various conferences, including the Real Estate Finance and Investment Symposium held at MIT, the Rena Sivitanidou Annual Research Symposium at USC, the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association annual meeting in Denver and the Asian Real Estate Society annual conference in Kaohsiung.
The Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate • 5500 Campanile Drive • San Diego, CA 92182-8236
Location: SSE 3428 • Tel: (619) 594-8327 • Email: mlea@mail.sdsu.edu